Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 17.388089 19.834106 22.469023 25.514538 28.933618 32.649496 36.989643
2025-01-19 13.011783 16.161844 19.819900 24.366581 29.850009 36.232721 44.207059
2025-01-26 11.424049 14.976712 19.302077 24.927073 32.017078 40.622359 51.819653
2025-02-02 10.254180 14.101997 18.986291 25.594915 34.250272 45.141179 59.814707
2025-02-09 9.047338 12.984411 18.170458 25.436766 35.278253 48.056088 65.798057
2025-02-16 7.993392 11.934726 17.306981 25.079513 35.933977 50.433696 71.121078
2025-02-23 7.268141 11.250893 16.851065 25.191798 37.165001 53.571422 77.552525
2025-03-02 6.702296 10.730197 16.559851 25.478312 38.609228 57.026027 84.546026
2025-03-09 6.150829 10.170413 16.150893 25.536453 39.690424 59.982742 90.939824
2025-03-16 5.589518 9.537713 15.571668 25.277624 40.256537 62.188266 96.314741
2025-03-23 5.209592 9.153535 15.332831 25.501619 41.531471 65.458754 103.368765
2025-03-30 4.994551 9.015567 15.461220 26.291698 43.698019 70.138578 112.720805
2025-04-06 4.564416 8.488000 14.937576 26.024988 44.224403 72.400881 118.590028
2025-04-13 3.978361 7.638370 13.818737 24.705101 42.979309 71.846528 120.059739
2025-04-20 3.802283 7.494892 13.869523 25.323706 44.904981 76.345928 129.656661
2025-04-27 3.647010 7.374002 13.946428 25.983918 46.924858 81.076807 139.822560
2025-05-04 3.376594 7.013411 13.572473 25.829288 47.545342 83.542108 146.394917
2025-05-11 3.100741 6.616626 13.101624 25.465117 47.771639 85.347211 151.933301
2025-05-18 2.916189 6.381050 12.906516 25.579604 48.830541 88.580443 159.979601
2025-05-25 2.769465 6.207633 12.813129 25.869942 50.208663 92.405071 169.174347
2025-06-01 2.605340 5.983560 12.605535 25.928969 51.163204 95.528420 177.278824
2025-06-08 2.417074 5.691541 12.243454 25.666477 51.504305 97.579782 183.583749
2025-06-15 2.297965 5.536594 12.139966 25.893631 52.760966 101.293353 192.947856